The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Academy Awards 2023

by Bill Grinnell

The Academy Awards ceremony is the biggest event of the year for me. I actually refer to it as Film Geek Christmas, and yes, as much as I hate to admit it, this day is more important to me than Christmas.

In almost every category this year, no one can say for sure who will win. It could be anyone’s night.

Here are my best guesses for Oscar night 2023:

Best Picture

This is one that literally no one saw coming, and yet, Everything Everywhere All at Once has skyrocketed to the top, capturing all four of the major precursor predictors: Producers Guild, Directors Guild, Actors Guild and Writers Guild awards. A feat only accomplished four other times, and each time the film won Best Picture.

The runner up slots are likewise rather odd. All Quiet on the Western Front, a foreign language film comes in second, with a big shock in the pre-awards buzz coming in third: Top Gun: Maverick. These are the two most cited as alternatives for older voters to choose over the unconventional Everything Everywhere. I can’t see Maverick at all, and if I were given an alternate choice it would be The Banshees of Inisherin.

Best Actor

This one is a literal coin toss this year. It could go either way so I have to go with my gut and predict Brendan Fraser. But it’s a weak gut choice. The closeness of the race leads to the possibility that Colin Ferrell could pull off the upset if the vote is split evenly enough.

Best Actress

This one is little better than a coin toss. The odds favor Yeoh, but she’s up against Cate Blanchett in what everyone has proclaimed to be a career high performance. Blanchett’s Problem: she’s already one twice. Despite what we’ve seen in the past number of years with Daniel Day-Lewis, Meryl Streep, and Frances McDormand–you simply don’t win three times. It’s a very exclusive club of only six people: Walter Brennan, Katherine Hepburn, Ingrid Bergman, Jack Nicholson, Meryl Streep, Daniel Day-Lewis and Frances McDormand. It’s simply too soon (just two years) for it to happen again.

Best Supporting Actor

The only lock in the acting categories all night is Ke Huy Quan in Everything Everywhere All at Once. Guaranteed. The upset would come from Keoghan, who just won the BAFTA, or possibly a career award to Judd Hirsch.

Best Supporting Actress

No one is placing any bets on the Supporting Actress race this year. Literally anyone could win. Early on in awards season Angela Bassett seemed to be on her way to a win here. That quickly ran out of steam and it’s been all over the place ever since. The one that has gotten just a bit more buzz about than the others is Kerry Condon, and she’s the one many are betting on. Jamie Lee Curtis won a surprise victory at the SAG awards, but this just doesn’t sit right with me in my gut, especially since there seems to be more talk about Stephanie Hsu in the same movie. It’s the first time I’ve thrown out four guesses, but it shows just how much everything is up in the air on this one.

Best Director

If there’s one (almost) sure thing this year, it’s that Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert will win Best Director for Everything Everywhere All at Once. The “almost” comes from Spielberg. It’s somewhat unlikely, but possible. He won the Golden Globe, it’s a very personal film (which they always love to reward) and it may be their last chance to give Spielberg an almost exclusive third Directing Oscar. Only Frank Capra and William Wyler have done it before, the former in 1959. John Ford actually won four times. If they ever want to give out a third one to a Director ever again, it would without a doubt go to Spielberg. They may feel this is the year for it to happen.