The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Academy Awards 2025

by Bill Grinnell

The Academy Awards ceremony is the biggest event of the year for me. I actually refer to it as Film Geek Christmas, and yes, as much as I hate to admit it, this day is more important to me than Christmas.

Here are my best guesses for Oscar night 2025:

Best Picture

Undoubtedly the most contentious race of the night. The contenders have been back and forth for months. Emilia Perez, Anora, The Brutalist and latecomer Conclave have been swarming around the prize to such an extent that it’s been hard to keep up.

Emilia Perez, the leader with 13 nominations, was torpedoed by its leading actress in a firestorm of controversy over various posts on social media.

Anora has seemed like an odd feeling Best Picture from the beginning. Two of the three main characters are often not very likeable, with only Yuriy Borsiov saving the day with his remarkable, quiet, subtle performance.

The Brutalist has been acclaimed from the start, though has never gained enough steam to be the clear front runner.

Conclave has risen dramatically (in several categories) in just the past few days. But will it be too little too late to overcome the powerhouse that has coalesced behind Anora, which has won all but one of the telltale predictors leading up to the ceremony: the Director’s Guild and Producer’s Guild awards, while Conclave took the SAG Ensemble Award. In the end, no, probably not.

Best Actor

Timothee Chalamet recently pulled off an upset by winning the SAG award, but from the start this has been Adrian Brody’s race to lose. Chalamet could still pull it off, with Ralph Fiennes coming up fast.

Best Actress

This has probably been the second most contentious race of the year. It was full steam ahead for Karla Sofia Gascon until she irreparably blew up her chances when a slew of controversial social media posts were revealed. Mickey Madison became the odds on favorite to win after that, but her star has dipped slightly with the rise of Demi Moore who recently took the SAG award. Madison is still a strong contender who could still win, but it at least appears that the phrase I never thought I would hear will be uttered on Oscar night: and the winner is… Demi Moore.

Best Supporting Actor

Like last year, there is absolutely no contest here at all. It’s been Culkin all season long and it’s not going to change. People seem to think Jeremy Strong is the best chance for the upset, but I’d personally love to see Yuriy Borisov win for his mesmerizing, quiet, subtle performance in Anora be the one to pull off the upset.

Best Supporting Actress

Until recently, this one was also a slam dunk for Saldana. But after Isabella Rossellini won the SAG award a number of people jumped ship. It probably doesn’t hurt that she’s the near perfect look alike and sound alike of her iconic mother. While the performance is fantastic, I think it won’t be quite enough to unseat Saldana. Even though her role is classified as supporting, it’s through her that we see everything.

Best Director

It’s not a one hundred percent guarantee that the DGA winner goes on to win the Academy Award, but it’s pretty rare. In keeping with that, it’s pretty likely that Sean Baker will win for Anora. If anyone were to unseat him, the universal consensus is that Corbet would be the one to do it.