The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Oscars

by Bill Grinnell

The Academy Awards ceremony is the biggest event of the year for me. I actually refer to it as Film Geek Christmas, and yes, as much as I hate to admit it, this day is more important to me than Christmas. While there are some volatile races this year, most of the awards have reached unanimous consent.

There’s something else this year. For the first time (barring an upset) the top six awards will all be won by a person of color.

From the beginning, everyone just sort of knew that Nomadland was going to end up as Best Picture. It’s slow pacing, subtle acting and rich cinematography have truly captured the hearts of voters and critics alike.

For all intents and purposes, there’s no real contest here. The best contender for the upset would be Anthony Hopkins in The Father. The question comes down to do they want to give out a posthumous award again so soon, or give a second Oscar to Hopkins. Boseman has had the momentum from the start, but interest in The Father and Hopkins performance are peaking at just the right time. In the end, it should still be Chadwick Boseman.

The most vigorous contest of the night by far, the Best Actress competition has been a knockdown dragout. Many are still saying McDormand, but she already has two. It’s extremely rare for an actor to win a third (especially when all three would be for a leading role.) Walter Brennan, Ingrid Bergman, Jack Nicholson, Meryl Streep, Daniel Day-Lewis and Katherine Hepburn (who went on to win a fourth) are the only members of this exclusive club. Many are saying Davis, which is a solid choice. It’s always thrilling to watch her throughout the movie. Carey Mulligan and Promising Young Woman are also peaking right now and a split between Davis and McDormand could bring her the win.

This is another race that’s been locked in from the start. Cohen give a great performance and Abby Hoffman, and there is excitement about Raci, but the awards keep going to Kaluuya. He will win this one too.

On the other hand, Best Supporting Actress has been in a tumble from the start. The knee jerk reaction was to give Glenn Close a career award. But working against her is that it’s an awful movie. Yu-Jung Youn has shot past her, winning all the late awards, and she seems likely to do so again. But watch out for Olivia Coleman who may benefit from the peaking excitement over The Father.

The exciting thing about the Best Director Oscar this year is that there are two women nominated (the first time ever.) It’s also exciting because they’re also the top two contenders in the race. After winning the tell-tale Directors Guild Award it seems likely that Zhao will win. She will become the second woman to do so. While there is great excitement for Promising Young Woman, I don’t think it’s strong enough to pull off an upset victory.